Comments on: Dubious statistic of the decade http://www.texttechnologies.com/2008/08/29/dubious-statistic-of-the-decade/ Understanding technology ... in both senses of the phrase Sun, 24 Jan 2010 05:45:03 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Daniel Weinreb http://www.texttechnologies.com/2008/08/29/dubious-statistic-of-the-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-49519 Daniel Weinreb Tue, 02 Sep 2008 03:06:35 +0000 http://www.texttechnologies.com/?p=275#comment-49519 As you (Curt) point out, the actual rate as cited is silly. But there's also the more general issue of extrapolating future exponential growth from previous exponential growth. On its face, such extrapolation also seems silly. Yet Ray Kurzweil, who is highly respected by so many people, seems to believe in that kind of extrapolation so much that he makes it a core principle. (I recently heard him speak near MIT.) Very strange. As you (Curt) point out, the actual rate as cited is silly. But there’s also the more general issue of extrapolating future exponential growth from previous exponential growth. On its face, such extrapolation also seems silly. Yet Ray Kurzweil, who is highly respected by so many people, seems to believe in that kind of extrapolation so much that he makes it a core principle. (I recently heard him speak near MIT.) Very strange.

]]> By: Silly Twitter statistic | Text Technologies http://www.texttechnologies.com/2008/08/29/dubious-statistic-of-the-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-49257 Silly Twitter statistic | Text Technologies Sat, 30 Aug 2008 08:18:31 +0000 http://www.texttechnologies.com/?p=275#comment-49257 [...] least the whole line of reasoning isn’t as bad as another one I recently discovered on the subject of information overload. Share: These icons link to social bookmarking sites where [...] [...] least the whole line of reasoning isn’t as bad as another one I recently discovered on the subject of information overload. Share: These icons link to social bookmarking sites where [...]

]]> By: Curt Monash http://www.texttechnologies.com/2008/08/29/dubious-statistic-of-the-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-49235 Curt Monash Sat, 30 Aug 2008 04:32:49 +0000 http://www.texttechnologies.com/?p=275#comment-49235 Larry, Please think about what doubling every 11 hours would entail. It's an increase by a factor of over 1,000 every five days. Hence, a factor of greater than 1 million every ten days. Greater than one billion every 15 days. Greater than 1 quintillion every month. In under 4 months it would require more mass for storage than exists in the entire universe. You have my full sympathy about editors who change one's meaning, but IMO you should have dug in your heels about this one ... Best, CAM Larry,

Please think about what doubling every 11 hours would entail. It’s an increase by a factor of over 1,000 every five days. Hence, a factor of greater than 1 million every ten days. Greater than one billion every 15 days. Greater than 1 quintillion every month. In under 4 months it would require more mass for storage than exists in the entire universe.

You have my full sympathy about editors who change one’s meaning, but IMO you should have dug in your heels about this one …

Best,

CAM

]]> By: Steve Hochschild http://www.texttechnologies.com/2008/08/29/dubious-statistic-of-the-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-49190 Steve Hochschild Fri, 29 Aug 2008 20:58:28 +0000 http://www.texttechnologies.com/?p=275#comment-49190 Innumeracy is epidemic, even in IBM and the press... Innumeracy is epidemic, even in IBM and the press…

]]> By: Larry Borsato http://www.texttechnologies.com/2008/08/29/dubious-statistic-of-the-decade/comment-page-1/#comment-49170 Larry Borsato Fri, 29 Aug 2008 17:42:08 +0000 http://www.texttechnologies.com/?p=275#comment-49170 I'm the guy who passed the statistic on deadpan - my editor edits out the rimshots when I joke. :) The fact is that there is never any justification show for these knowledge doubling estimates. My point was that the rate of knowledge is increasing and we'd better find a way to filter information better. The IBM quote was available and just helped to show that the problem is getting bigger, though every 11 hours is probably a bit of a stretch. Also, the definition of "knowledge" is never clarified. If people actually mean "data" then the output of polling companies alone is probably already doubling every 11 hours. Thanks for commenting! I’m the guy who passed the statistic on deadpan – my editor edits out the rimshots when I joke. :)

The fact is that there is never any justification show for these knowledge doubling estimates. My point was that the rate of knowledge is increasing and we’d better find a way to filter information better. The IBM quote was available and just helped to show that the problem is getting bigger, though every 11 hours is probably a bit of a stretch.

Also, the definition of “knowledge” is never clarified. If people actually mean “data” then the output of polling companies alone is probably already doubling every 11 hours.

Thanks for commenting!

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